** This piece is part of my ongoing “2-fer Tuesday” series where I share critical distinctions in how to view and think about the world that may help you see things more clearly - which then supports better thinking, firmer decision making, and wiser action taking. **

By now we’ve all heard the stories of people inadvertently driving into lakes, down train tracks, and through fields because they were “just following the map.” In fact, “just following the map” has led to much worse outcomes than 4 flat tires or 30-minute detours. This week’s duo of distinctions is offered to help you become better at not only avoiding driving your car (or company!) off a cliff, but also better at predicting what is coming up around the bend.

1)    Maps vs Territories – “The Map is not the Territory” is a well-worn phrase, but let’s unpack it just a bit more thoroughly here to put more focus on YOU as the intermediary Agent between them. The man who drove out into the lake mentioned above wasn’t simply hallucinating that he was on a road, but was in fact fully aware of driving his car out in the water but chose instead to believe the map was more real than his actual experience. Same with the lady who drove on the railroad tracks. But guess what? The territory always wins. 

And, if we’re honest, I’m sure we won’t have to look too far in our lives to find occasions where we chose to believe some imaginary “map” or Narrative as being more real than what we actually experienced and understood to be true in our lived experience. And at some point, the territory “won” and we probably ended up paying some cost as a result.

The take-away here for you: Remember that maps serve as a guide, but ultimately, we are in charge of how we proceed through the territory. Taking more ownership and responsibility of our roles here as Agents will empower us to make better choices that align with the real world opportunities and honor the limitations found in the territory.  

What “maps” are you using today? How do they compare to your experienced territory? Is it time to change maps? 

The take-away for your Leadership: What maps are you giving your teams? How are you supporting them in their own efforts to remain oriented to what the territory is giving them?

2)    A model vs TO model – This one is pretty closely related to the one above, but is different enough to warrant a brief exposition of what makes it distinct and useful. A model is a noun, and much like the maps mentioned above, usually gets some sort of primary role in interpreting data, simplifying decision making, and ideally making helpful and accurate predictions of what is to come.

Good models are extremely useful and can be used to parse or chunk our complex reality into much easier to process points. But A model can also miss lots of important info, fall out of date, be based on bad assumptions, and/or be more wrong than right in 100’s of ways. The problem here is that most of these ways are invisible to the people using the model, especially to the degree they are unaware or unfamiliar with how it was built in the first place. Economics is one place where models are wrong ALL THE TIME but people persist in using them, as are Pandemic Response Strategies *cough, cough*.

TO model, on the other hand, is a verb. It is the action of modeling. And as such, it requires some degree of participation in building the model, which requires a minimal awareness of assumptions, givens, filters, and other relevant modeling frameworks that can at least point to where any particular model might be limited. Being a verb, it also invites an active and ongoing comparison between what the model predicts and what is actually happening (maps and territories again!), which should encourage ongoing adjustments to the modeling process so as to tighten up the prediction/reality gaps.  

One good place to see TO model in use is with hurricane forecasting where you often see 6 – 8 “predicted tracks” of where the hurricane might go. In these instances the meteorologist is using multiple models, each with slightly different parameters in place, to generate some possible routes the hurricane might take. The more closely aligned the tracks are, the more confident and specific he can be in his forecasts. The more divergent they are, the less confident and less specific.   

The take away here for you: Appreciate that we often need to rely on A model other people have made to forecast our own future, but we still have the opportunity and obligation as Agents TO model how the predictions are lining up with our observations and experiences, and then adjust our use of those other models as necessary. 

The take-away for your Leadership: How are you demonstrating active and effective modeling as a strategy for your team? Where are you collectively testing the models they are using? And how are you encouraging them to take a more active role in their own iterative process of using models to make predictions, evaluate them, and then change the models as needed? 

In conclusion, and this applies in your own life and in your Leadership roles, feel free to extensively use all the maps you like, but always keep an eye on the territory AND give it both preference and precedence. And when faced with uncertainty, don’t simply follow A model that was given to you in pursuit of black and white clarity, but instead seek To model a wide variety of possibilities in order to make your decisions on probabilities that can better reflect the shades of grey of real world decision making.  

Better predictions not only help you keep your car on the road, but they help you get where you want to go, faster and easier.