I hear these two words being used interchangeably quite often, but the differences between them are very stark and important to keep in mind in any kind of strategic thinking situation. No more so than when facing important choices in our VUCA world that have real consequences in your life and those who depend on you.

 We’ll begin with “Complicated,” as that one is much simpler. The Dictionary definition is as follows: composed of elaborately interconnected parts; complex: and difficult to analyze, understand, explain, etc.:

 See? Even the good ol’ Dictionary is a bit confused here in that it puts “complex” in there as part of the definition. Perhaps true enough in ordinary parlance, this combination is inadequate for higher order thinking.

 For our purposes here we’ll keep this definition, but add an important caveat. A “complicated” thing or system is one that ultimately has a blueprint. Parts therein can be changed out, you can take it apart and put it back together again, and it is largely adaptable to further modification with predictable results. A Boeing 777 airplane is a great example of a complicated situation The “blueprint” for this airplane is not a one-page document but rather a binder 6-inches thick. Parts can be substituted in and out at will, and further improvements and modifications can be easily integrated. It’s complicated, but simple enough over all.

 Complex is the opposite of this. One of my favorite contemporary philosophers, Edgar Morin, worked extensively with Complexity Theory. His favorite, go-to definition of complexity was just “it isn’t simple.” Witty and short, but more helpful than appears at first glance. The Dictionary definition is a bit longer, but less helpful: composed of many interconnected parts; compound; composite: and characterized by a very complicated or involved arrangement of parts, units, etc.:

 Sooo.... “very complicated”? As if throwing the very in there is helpful? Again, this is the basic definition for regular conversation, but ultimately unhelpful for bigger picture thinking.

 The crucial element I want to suggest is to see “complex” in contradistinction to “complicated.” Complex systems DO NOT have a blueprint. You CANNOT simply remove or change components and study them in isolation with hopes to see how they function in the system. They may adaptive, but are often entirely UNPREDICTABLE. All living things are complex systems, as are larger systems composed of living things. You are a complex system, and so is an ecological ecosystem, so is a weather system.

 Let’s flesh this out just a bit further, using you as human vs Boeing 777 as the example. Can a you be built? Is there a blueprint? Can we simply change out your arm with a stronger one? Can we pull out your heart and lay it on the table to see how it works, and then reattach it later with no ill effect? Most importantly, are you 100% predictable? You are complex, the airplane is just complicated.

 Another good point of reference is hurricane forecasting. It’s 2022 and the newest computing network dedicated to this task brings 42 petaflops of computing power to bear on it, yet is still left to shrug as each storm continuously defies predictions and does what it will. See how Morin’s “not simple” is ultimately very accurate?

 I imagine your strategic thinking capacity, like mine as well, is more than a few bits short of 42 petaflops. So rather than burning it out trying to predict the unpredictable, a better first step might be to see where you can parse out the complicated from the complex. Complicated things are worth grinding on to clarify the blueprints and break down the parts. Done well, this process can yield solid predictions.

Complex ones are trickier. Like hurricanes, they require more vigilant observation, tracking, and flexibility to deal with sudden changes. Even when done well this process at best yields contingencies and hedges, and disaster can still strike. People are depending on you not to confuse the two.